Didn't Premier Redford Promise "Certainty"?

My latest Calgary Herald column looks at the budget crisis the Alberta Tories are now facing, and how the whole situation exposes their ridiculous assumptions and promises in last year's election:

A deep sense of unease has swept across Alberta as the Redford government contemplates deep spending cuts or even tax increases to address its budget crisis.
The latest numbers would indicate that Alberta is facing a deficit of $3 billion — perhaps even more, according to some analysts. Government departments have reportedly been asked to find cost savings, and have been instructed to prepare various spending-cut scenarios. There’s also been very public musing about Alberta’s revenue situation and whether tax increases might need to be considered.
But the good news is that in last year’s election campaign, the PC Party of Alberta — led, of course, by Alison Redford — made very clear and firm commitments to the people of Alberta.
As the Tories declared, “Albertans want to know what their leaders think on the issues, so they can trust them to provide the leadership the province needs.”
Accordingly, they boasted of their “three-year budget with no tax increases and no service cuts,” which Redford assured us “provides the certainty that Albertans need.”
So if the Tories promised us “certainty,” why should anything at this point be uncertain?
The uncertainty, as we all know, came from those Wildrose types who questioned the government’s rosy assumptions and spoke of the need to curtail spending to balance the budget.
The Tories demanded the Wildrose tell us, “Where will you cut? How dramatic will the cuts be? And when can Albertans expect your cuts to occur?”
I suppose those inclined to doubt the sincerity and credibility of the Tories’ campaign promises would ask such questions of the government now. But if even the government has such doubts about its own promises, where does that leave the rest of us?
Not that the government will admit as much, though. You see, it’s not that their campaign promises were in any way flawed or that their assurances lacked credibility, it’s that circumstances have changed. The government says the “tough choices” they’re now facing are due to a drop off in resource revenues, precipitated by the large discount Alberta oil is selling at. And while the discount is real and problematic, the gap between the price of West Texas Intermediate and Western Canada Select began growing in late 2011 and early 2012 — in other words, before the campaign assurances of budget “certainty.”
What, exactly, led the government to be “certain” that the gap would close? Where did the “certainty” come from in concluding that the problems wouldn’t become more pronounced?
Really, what the government is admitting here, is that their promises were not worth the paper they were written on. Albertans were not given pledges based on probabilities and preferences — they were promised “certainty.”
Much like what we’re seeing now on the questions of tax increases in the forthcoming spring budget or the possibility of having to borrow to pay for operational spending. In both cases, Redford was quite unequivocal that neither would occur.
However, how do we know that Redford’s certainty on those questions now is any different from the certainty they offered us last year? If last year’s promises were based on the realities they hoped would exist, maybe these promises are, too.
It does appear as though the groundwork is being laid for future tax increases. Beyond this year’s budget, Redford would only say that she doesn’t “want to see any new taxes” and her “preference” would be to keep that commitment. She even pointed out to reporters how her government is hearing from Albertans who would like to see taxes raised.
True leadership means much more that telling Albertans that you “prefer” not raising taxes or cutting spending. She needs to articulate her vision for steering us through this crisis. If Redford is opposed to raising taxes, then she needs to be the one standing up to those pushing such an agenda, rather than passively noting their correspondence.
As the Tories pointed out last year, Albertans do indeed want to know where their leaders stand on the issues. Unfortunately, that statement, like so much else from this government, seems to have been empty election rhetoric.