This week's Calgary Herald column from yours truly looks at the problems facing the Alberta government - problems beyond the most immediate one, mind you: the defection of two MLAs to the Wildrose Alliance - and the threat of more to come.
A rough year shaping up for Stelmach & Co.:
Having finally reached the end of a torturous twelve months, does the government now face the horror having to relive it all?
Not that Premier Stelmach is likely to find himself in a Groundhog Day-like scenario where he awakes to find it is January 1, 2009 all over again.
Rather, the likelihood that the political missteps, intransigence, and hubris that made 2009 such an unbearable year will be ever-present again in 2010.
Moreover, it would seem as though most of 2009's political headaches - energy royalties, the deficit, spending cuts, health care - will carry over into the new year. Those largely self-inflicted headaches remain as such because the government seems incapable of devising a coherent strategy for dealing with them.
Some of these issues are new or ongoing challenges, but the question of energy royalties was one that the government had ostensibly dealt with.
Now, as 2010 begins, we find ourselves awaiting (yet another) set of changes to the royalty structure.
Of course, the raging populist battle cry of "our fair share" has been replaced by the cold reality of the damage done by the government's first round of changes.
As noted in 2009's Global Petroleum Survey from the Fraser Institute, Alberta had become the least attractive Canadian province for oil and gas investment. The report's coordinator remarked that it was a clear rebuke of the Alberta government’s "misguided policies".
Of course, "misguided policies" might be a suitable way to sum up 2009 for the Stelmach Tories.
The one firestorm that might not carry over into 2010 is the H1N1 flu situation, as the abating of the outbreak has led to an abating of sorts of the backlash against the handling of the vaccination campaign.
However, just as people were perhaps ready to put that controversy behind them, an apparent hypersensitivity to criticism on the government's part has helped thrust the matter back into the spotlight.
Following the vaccination fiasco, the opposition Liberals called for the resignation of Health Minister Ron Liepert. The Liberals subsequently laid out their case at a website they set up: liepertmustgo.ca.
Last week, however, the Liberals were informed that the website had to go. None other that the Speaker of the Legislature himself, Ken Kowalski, has determined that the website is an inappropriate use of public funds since it "singles out" one MLA.
Of course, the Liberals could simply use party funds to pay for the site, but it's an absurd demand from the Speaker's office - one that also sets a disturbing precedent. Should opposition parties refrain from criticizing individual ministers - or the Premier himself - and simply offer vague critiques of "the government"?
The order also reveals a tendency on the government's part to attack the messenger - much like the Premier's comments at November's Tory convention where he blamed the media for his woes.
With the same controversies and same attitudes from this government, will 2010 be any different? Other than the names on the cabinet office doors, given the expected cabinet shuffle this morning, I fear very little will change.
As the government found itself plunging in public support - to the point that they trailed the Wildrose Alliance by 15 points, and the Premier's own personal approval rating hit 14 per cent - it showed little indication that a change in course was in the offing.That much must have seemed obvious to now-former Tory MLAs Rob Anderson and Heather Forsyth. Their defections to the Wilrose Alliance must now confirm for disgruntled Tories that change is to be found elsewhere.
The resounding approval of Premier Stelmach's leadership at the November party conference only served to convey the impression that the Tories were totally disconnected from Albertans.
Having now dug themselves a very deep political hole and having entrenched a deep desire for change in Albertans of all political stripes, it's hard to see how 2010 is going to be much merrier for the Alberta government than was 2009.
If all we get is more of the same, it could actually be worse.
As for the defections, my condensed thoughts are contained in today's on-air editorial comment, which reads as follows:
Whatever one might think of the defections of now former Tory MLAs Rob Anderson and Heather Forsyth, it is certainly a more risky move to depart the government benches then to join them. The fact that these two indivuduals were prepared to walk away from the safety and trappings of government would and should indicate that there are serious issues within the Tory caucus. It may be naive to argue that the decision to bolt to the Wildrose Alliance was 100% based on principle, but I think we have to take their criticisms very seriously. Should the two MLAs resign and re-run in byelections? There's a compelling case to be made. However, if we're going to mandate byelections for floor-crossers, we need to mandate political promises. It's not just a party banner politicians are elected under, but a vision. If the vision changes or promises are broken, that's as much a betryal of the voters as is switching parties. In sheer political terms, it's a major boost for the Wildrose Alliance, which has already been on a roll as of late. They come out of 2009 already leading the Tories in at least one major poll, and now have even more momentum going into 2010. The tories were already facing enormous challenges entering the new year. Just four days into 2010, things got even worse for them. It's going to be an interesting twelve months.
No comments:
Post a Comment